The issue, as correctly

The issue, as correctly emphasized by Carl Sagan, is the probability of the evolution of high intelligence and an electronic civilization on an inhabited world. Once we have life (and almost surely it will be very different from life on Earth), what is the probability of its developing a lineage with high intelligence? On Earth, … Read more

Does the logic connect?

Does the logic connect? What are the range of probably outcomes? You want to figure out what those probabilities are and ideally be the House. It’s fine to gamble, as long as you’re the House. Also, listen to critical feedback, particularly from friends. Generally they will be thinking it but they won’t tell you. Elon … Read more

One influential philosophical position

One influential philosophical position about the use of probability in science holds that probabilities are objective only if they are based on micro-physics; all other probabilities should be interpreted subjectively, as merely revealing our ignorance about physical details. I have argued against this position, contending that the objectivity of micro-physical probabilities entails the objectivity of … Read more